Results of the Presidential Election hinges on voters with no affiliation to any party

As the forthcoming National Presidential Election nears, the deciding power of the Election is vested in the hands of the silent majority that has no affiliation to any political party. Official statistics show that out the total eligible voters some 200,000 or 60% are non-party voters.

Out of the 200,000 (Two Hundred Thousand) voters, 79,000 (Seventy Nine Thousand) are members affiliated to different Political Parties. Of the two leading contenders, DRP and MDP, accepted membership base of DRP amounts to 32,000 (Thirty Two Thousand). This is 16 per cent of the total number of voters (199,841) who voted during the last election held to verify the type of governing system (Parliamentary/Presidential). When taken into account the total MDP's registered voters, amounting to 21,000 (Twenty One Thousand), its national share based on the membership is 11 per cent.

The share of the other Political Parties varies with single digits. IDP with 7,000 (Seven Thousand) members has a national voter share of 3.5 per cent. Whereas, Adaalath with 6,000 (Six Thousand Members) has a 3 per cent share. The share of MSDP is 2 per cent, with 4,000 (Four Thousand) registered Members. Similarly the Peoples Party with 3,800 (Three Thousand Eight Hundred) Members, the share is 1.9 per cent and the share of Maldives National Congress with 3,300 (Three Thousand Three Hundred) Members is 1.65 per cent.

The deduction from these figures clearly show that at present there is no single Political Party that can win a national election outright based on its registered membership base, and that in order to win, every single party has to depend on the neutral 60 per cent majority.

In theory, there is a chance for an independent candidate to win the election, provided he or she is able to command the majority from this 60 per cent. But the chance hovers around those parties with majority registered membership base and with their assistance swing majority from this 60 per cent in their favour.

Based on party neutral 60 per cent, it shows that there is hope for individual candidates in this election. Even though, statistically, such possibilities exist the winning candidate in the forthcoming election would be the one who is most popular appealing to the public, or rather the Party; or if it is an Alliance. The final decision depends on the voting public and no judgments are passed here.